Preseason Rankings
Missouri Valley
2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
64 Northern Iowa 45.6%   12   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 7 13 - 5 +8.8      +5.9 39 +2.9 92 63.9 297 0.0 1 0.0 1
76 Loyola Chicago 35.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 6 12 - 6 +7.7      +2.6 103 +5.1 52 63.3 306 0.0 1 0.0 1
117 Bradley 13.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 11 10 - 8 +3.4      +1.9 126 +1.5 121 66.1 253 0.0 1 0.0 1
122 Indiana St. 13.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 11 10 - 8 +3.1      +2.2 117 +0.9 143 65.8 258 0.0 1 0.0 1
135 Missouri St. 8.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 10 9 - 9 +1.7      +1.4 133 +0.3 159 68.0 203 0.0 1 0.0 1
144 Drake 6.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 12 9 - 9 +1.2      +0.6 152 +0.6 152 68.0 204 0.0 1 0.0 1
155 Valparaiso 5.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 13 8 - 10 +0.5      +0.3 164 +0.2 162 71.3 106 0.0 1 0.0 1
168 Southern Illinois 4.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 12 8 - 10 -0.5      -2.7 251 +2.2 106 61.0 333 0.0 1 0.0 1
188 Illinois St. 3.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 13 7 - 11 -1.8      -1.6 219 -0.2 173 68.9 175 0.0 1 0.0 1
261 Evansville 0.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 18 5 - 13 -5.9      -4.1 287 -1.9 226 67.9 211 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Northern Iowa 2.5 41.1 22.0 13.8 8.2 5.7 3.7 2.6 1.6 0.8 0.4
Loyola Chicago 3.0 33.1 21.1 14.4 9.9 7.4 5.4 3.8 2.6 1.5 0.7
Bradley 4.5 11.1 14.2 15.2 13.6 12.2 10.6 8.9 6.9 4.7 2.6
Indiana St. 4.6 10.7 13.1 14.1 13.4 12.7 10.8 9.5 7.3 5.6 2.9
Missouri St. 5.2 7.3 10.2 11.8 12.8 12.6 12.1 11.4 9.4 7.9 4.6
Drake 5.5 5.5 9.2 10.7 11.9 12.5 12.9 12.4 10.6 8.7 5.6
Valparaiso 5.7 4.6 7.7 9.9 11.3 12.3 13.1 12.8 11.9 10.2 6.4
Southern Illinois 6.2 3.5 5.7 7.7 9.8 11.4 12.4 13.3 13.7 13.1 9.3
Illinois St. 6.7 2.2 4.3 6.4 8.2 9.9 11.1 13.0 14.7 16.1 14.1
Evansville 8.3 0.5 0.9 1.8 3.0 4.7 6.8 10.0 14.4 22.5 35.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Northern Iowa 13 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.2 3.3 4.6 6.4 8.5 10.5 12.2 13.0 13.0 11.4 8.0 4.0
Loyola Chicago 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.3 2.3 3.2 4.8 6.2 7.6 9.4 10.6 11.7 12.1 11.1 8.9 6.6 2.7
Bradley 10 - 8 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.6 2.6 4.3 5.8 7.9 9.5 10.6 10.7 11.2 10.6 8.5 7.0 4.4 2.6 1.1 0.3
Indiana St. 10 - 8 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 3.4 4.6 6.6 8.4 9.2 10.7 11.0 10.4 9.8 8.1 6.2 4.5 2.3 1.1 0.3
Missouri St. 9 - 9 0.2 0.7 1.4 3.0 5.0 6.2 7.9 9.6 10.8 10.9 10.3 9.4 8.4 6.4 4.4 2.9 1.6 0.6 0.2
Drake 9 - 9 0.1 0.8 2.1 3.4 5.2 7.3 9.0 10.8 11.2 10.5 10.3 8.6 7.5 5.8 3.6 2.2 1.2 0.6 0.1
Valparaiso 8 - 10 0.3 1.1 2.1 4.2 6.4 7.9 9.9 10.9 11.1 10.9 9.8 8.2 6.3 4.9 3.1 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1
Southern Illinois 8 - 10 0.5 1.7 3.5 5.6 7.7 9.7 10.8 11.3 10.7 10.2 8.7 6.7 4.9 3.5 2.2 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0
Illinois St. 7 - 11 0.9 3.1 5.3 7.4 9.7 11.1 11.3 10.8 9.8 8.5 7.3 5.6 3.9 2.6 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Evansville 5 - 13 4.0 9.2 12.6 14.0 13.8 12.4 10.2 8.3 5.6 4.1 2.6 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Northern Iowa 41.1% 31.3 8.2 1.4 0.2 0.0
Loyola Chicago 33.1% 24.8 7.0 1.2 0.2 0.0
Bradley 11.1% 6.8 3.3 0.9 0.2 0.0
Indiana St. 10.7% 6.5 3.4 0.7 0.1 0.0
Missouri St. 7.3% 4.5 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
Drake 5.5% 3.4 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
Valparaiso 4.6% 2.5 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
Southern Illinois 3.5% 1.9 1.2 0.3 0.1
Illinois St. 2.2% 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Evansville 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Northern Iowa 45.6% 30.9% 14.7% 12   1.0 1.5 1.4 2.4 2.1 2.0 2.4 2.9 3.9 5.8 6.9 8.1 3.6 1.0 0.5 0.2 54.4 21.3%
Loyola Chicago 35.2% 25.6% 9.7% 0.6 1.0 1.0 2.1 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.7 2.6 3.0 4.9 7.5 4.0 1.6 0.8 0.2 64.8 13.0%
Bradley 13.7% 9.9% 3.8% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.9 3.5 2.5 1.1 0.5 0.4 86.3 4.3%
Indiana St. 13.4% 9.9% 3.5% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.9 3.6 2.4 1.1 0.6 0.3 86.6 3.9%
Missouri St. 8.4% 6.6% 1.7% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 2.0 2.0 1.0 0.6 0.2 91.6 1.9%
Drake 6.9% 5.7% 1.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.6 1.5 0.9 0.6 0.4 93.1 1.3%
Valparaiso 5.8% 4.7% 1.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.3 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.4 94.2 1.2%
Southern Illinois 4.4% 3.5% 0.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.2 95.6 0.9%
Illinois St. 3.1% 2.6% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.3 96.9 0.5%
Evansville 0.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 99.3 0.1%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Northern Iowa 45.6% 3.7% 43.7% 21.2% 8.5% 3.6% 1.4% 0.7% 0.3%
Loyola Chicago 35.2% 3.4% 33.8% 15.5% 6.4% 2.6% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2%
Bradley 13.7% 1.6% 13.0% 4.0% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana St. 13.4% 1.6% 12.6% 3.9% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Missouri St. 8.4% 0.9% 7.9% 2.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Drake 6.9% 0.7% 6.5% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Valparaiso 5.8% 0.8% 5.5% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Illinois 4.4% 0.5% 4.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois St. 3.1% 0.4% 2.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Evansville 0.7% 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.4 65.6 31.7 2.7 0.1
1st Round 99.7% 1.3 0.3 70.7 27.2 1.8 0.0
2nd Round 45.9% 0.5 54.1 41.1 4.7 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 18.5% 0.2 81.5 18.0 0.5 0.0
Elite Eight 7.3% 0.1 92.7 7.2 0.1
Final Four 2.9% 0.0 97.1 2.8 0.0
Final Game 1.2% 0.0 98.8 1.2
Champion 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5